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Scenario Planning

Planning for Automated Driving and Deployment
Scenario Planning and Disruptive Trends

Today, OEMs dominate the auto industry and design, build and sell mechanical vehicles leveraging their low cost but capital intensive mass production capabilities and extensive distribution networks. 

However,  the simplified electric powertrain, new manufacturing technologies, self driving technology and connectivity allow new players with customer-centric business models to enter a new connected and almost on-demand mobility-transportation-logistics market.

Some of the most significant issues we are facing are helping to create a cleaner and safer world making mobility and living more easy for all.

However,  automated driving will not emerge as a self-driving taxi in the centre of London, New York or Singapore.  The innovation cycles sometimes accelerate where the disruptive mega trends intersect and new applications suddenly become possible.  

Similar to the myriad of applications developed after the invention of the iphone, the combination of the new disruptive megatrends provides a nucleus for the development of new purpose vehicle types.  Many of these are not invented yet, however, may be very disruptive in the next years to come.

Disruptive Mega Trends

Electrification - ICE engines have around 2000+ parts, the EV drivetrain can have a low as 70 parts.  The battery cost, capacity and degradation are improving.  This making the cost/km much lower. 

Self Driving - ADS technology is developing rapidly.  This provides assistance to human drivers as active safety and traffic jam pilot, it also allows the design of new smart city innovative solutions (streets weepers, city logistic vehicles, self driving vending machines, airport shuttles that remember where you parked).

Connectivity - The complete city is connected and becomes a digital on-demand smart city.  The connectivity is also allowing the vehicles AD algorithms to learn from field data. 

Manufacturing - New manufacturing technologies (3D printing, rapid prototyping, new materials) allow lower volume purpose built vehicles.

Shared Economy - The shared economy provides opportunities to develop new and innovative connected and on-demand solutions,







to be continued..
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